First Freeze? Really?!
In the last five days we broke four record high temperatures. Three of which were 90 degrees or above! Do we really need to talk about freezing temperatures now?
Well, the first freeze should be next week. Last years first freeze was Oct. 8th.
On average, over the last 30 years, the first freeze in the Shenango Valley is Oct 1st and Oct 11th for the Mahoning Valley.
(National Weather Service Pittsburgh)
I can tell you that we are not going to see the first freeze next week. We probably won’t even see freezing temperatures in the first half of October.
Below is long range forecasted temperatures 6-10 days off from now. We are 100% likely to be above average, which are highs at 68 degrees.
So enjoy this colder spell we are currently in because we are going to warm back up next week. But how long will it last?
(Climate Prediction Center)
We can take the same graph, from the climate prediction center, and look 8-14 days out. Now we are looking at the second week of October.
Again, we are likely to see above average temperatures.
(Climate Prediction Center)
Keep in mind that the average temperatures will continue to drop as we head into the month of October. We could still see one of the mornings in mid October creep near freezing.
However, looking at long range models, at this time there is no indication that we will see freezing temperatures before Oct 14th.
Meteorologist Matt Jones 